On top of direct military expenditures, Smetters projected an additional economic loss to the United States alone of approximately $115 billion, with a wide band of uncertainty stretching from $50 billion all the way to $210 billion. “Again, [there’s] more uncertainty at the top end,” he noted, flagging that the upside risk is greater than the downside. That broader economic impact accounts for disruptions to trade, energy markets, and financial conditions that a sustained conflict in the Middle East typically triggers.
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The August 2025 study was built on an unusually powerful dataset—high-frequency payroll records from millions of American workers generated by ADP, the largest payroll software firm in the country. What Brynjolfsson and his co-authors found was striking: Since the widespread adoption of generative AI tools beginning in late 2022, employment for early-career workers in the most AI-exposed occupations fell by 13% on a relative basis, even after controlling for broader firm-level disruptions. Older, more experienced workers in the same fields, meanwhile, saw their employment hold steady or grow.,这一点在51吃瓜中也有详细论述
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C11 and C++17 compilers